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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2014-01-23 21:54 UTC
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501 FXUS64 KHGX 232154 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 354 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SLOWLY SWING TOWARDS N TX TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING CONROE NORTHWARD MAINLY AROUND 9PM. FREEZING TEMPS THEN WORK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR HOUSTON ALTHOUGH IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER WITH PRECIP FALLING AND WET BULB THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MODELS CONSISTENTLY KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY MOVING IN MIXING WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT IS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. AS JET DYNAMICS SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE AREA...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS NOT AS MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SOLID 0.1 TO 0.25 OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRI. NAM ALSO HAS QUITE A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN SEVERAL LAYERS MAINLY 850MB-700MB PEAKING AROUND 06Z THROUGH 12Z. THE MAIN ISSUE BEFORE WAS WOULD THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP AND WHETHER DRY SUB FREEZING LAYER WOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING GROUND. THAT HAS CHANGED AND AS A RESULT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE AREA. LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z FRI SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO PRECIP LONGER ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK AREAS NORTH OF CONROE WILL START WITH RAIN TRANSITION TO MIX SLEET/FZRA UNTIL 06Z FRI. MAY THEN SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLE TO HAVE A BAND OF 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM CALDWELL/COLLEGE STATION ACROSS HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. ICE ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE A MESS OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE...BASICALLY CONROE SOUTH THOUGH HOUSTON TO THE COAST EXPECT RAIN GOING TO FZRA/SLEET APPROACHING MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AT SFC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BUT SUPPOSE A FLAKE OR TWO COULD MIX IN WITH SLEET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM NOSE AROUND 850-800MB IN SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF SUBFREEZING LAYER...FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. POSSIBLE TO GET FREEZING RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS GALVESTON BY 12Z FRI WHICH COULD CAUSE FURTHER TRAVEL ISSUES. ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECT HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS AS OUTLINED ABOVE. GIVE MESO MODEL OUTPUT FROM TX TECH WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS...EVEN 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERAL 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG I-10 AND US59 AND BACK TOWARDS HOUSTON. LOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL A RISK MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE WARMER AFTER FRIDGID FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED OUT WITH FRONT. 39 && .AVIATION... ALREADY SEEING SNOW IN CLL OBS THIS AFTN. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING PCPN TYPES/TIMES WITH AMENDMENTS THUS FAR. END TIMES FOR THE WINTRY MIX MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED PAST THE 15Z CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS FOR TO- MORROW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRN SITES (CLL/UTS/CXO). 41 && .MARINE... WENT AHEAD WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE AREAS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AND NO CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT CONFIGURATIONS WILL BE COMING WITH THIS NEXT PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO DE- CREASE BY TOMORROW/FRI AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE TX AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUN OVERNIGHT/VERY EARLY MON. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 26 36 29 60 41 / 70 30 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 28 35 30 60 41 / 80 50 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 30 37 36 56 48 / 70 60 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON... TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS... JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON... LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO... WALLER...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...39 AVIATION/MARINE...41