National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2012-12-25 09:38 UTC


310 
FXUS64 KEWX 250938 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

CORRECTED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER SECTION.

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING LIKE AN EVENTFUL CHRISTMAS DAY. STARTING OUT THIS MORNING
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES.
SO FAR STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. THE
SET UP THIS MORNING IS A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM AROUND COTULLA
TO HOUSTON AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL CONVECTION WAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FARTHER NORTHWEST IN NORTH TEXAS ALONG WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY LINE. THERE IS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND PRECIP IS STARTING IN THIS AREA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT OF THIS LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING
THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND AS IT DOES CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 50 TO
60 KTS. STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE IN VICINITY OF WATCH AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND
USHER IN COLDER...DRIER AIR AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN TEMPS WILL DROP. EXPECT A HARD FREEZE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER
AIR. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY IN THE EAST. EARLY NEXT
WEEK GFS SHOWS POSSIBLE WET PATTERN DEVELOPING. ECMWF SHOWS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THIS POINT. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD GFS SO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT
AND WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  29  46  27  59 /  50   0  -   -   -  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  24  46  21  59 /  50   0  -   -   -  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  25  47  23  58 /  40   0  -   -   -  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  25  42  24  57 /  50   0  -   -   10 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  31  48  29  57 /  10   0   0   0  -  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  24  43  23  58 /  50   0  -   -   10 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  26  49  23  59 /  20   0  -   -   -  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  26  46  23  59 /  40   0  -   -   -  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  28  47  28  61 /  50  -   -   -   10 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  27  48  27  59 /  30   0  -   -   -  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  28  48  26  59 /  30   0  -   -   -  

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE 
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...
KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05