National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX Received: 2018-08-11 04:40 UTC

FXUS63 KDMX 110440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1140 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Weak boundary moving across the area today, however with weak 
forcing it has remained dry. Meanwhile, ridging off to the west will 
continue to build, keeping the area dry through the weekend. 
Although the trough to the east continues to show retrograde
motion, models suggest it will remain over the Great Lakes/Ohio 
River Valley region. Hi-res models do pick up on smoke from 
western/Canadian fires dropping south into the area Saturday 
afternoon and evening which may result in some vibrant sunsets. 
Temperatures will warm a few degrees through Monday as thermal 
ridging helps to bump up temperatures. 

By early next week a low to the southwest will phase with a 
shortwave trough as it begins to dig across the northern plains. The 
combination of dynamical forcing from the shortwave trough and 
modest moisture transport from the monsoonal low results in 
increased precipitation chances for late Monday through at least 
Wednesday. For now severe potential appears low, as shear is quite 
weak. The axis of greatest precipitation looks to be over southern 
to southeast Iowa, with plenty of moisture transport and pwat values 
approaching 2 inches. While timing and location is subject to change 
as models come into better agreement, with ongoing drought any rain 
will certainly be welcome. Timing remains somewhat fluid, as GFS is 
more progressive with the precip chances beginning over southwest 
Iowa Monday afternoon and the system moving out of the area 
Wednesday while the Euro arrives Tuesday and lingers precip chances 
with this system through Thursday. 

Models diverge towards the end of next week, with more progressive 
GFS and slower Euro. Both indicate active pattern with several 
systems interacting, likely bringing multiple precip chances through 
the end of the week.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Relatively tranquil aviation weather is expected although a few
concerns remain. Light winds overnight may allow for the
development of area of fog toward daybreak, more likely in
northern Iowa than southern. In addition, smoke layers aloft are
expected as smoke from western wildfires spreads across the
Midwest. This may produce some MVFR visibilities from time to