National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX Received: 2018-05-17 04:52 UTC


003 
FXUS63 KDMX 170452
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1152 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Mainly quiet weather to persist through the end of the work week. 
Biggest issue will be a few pop-up weak showers/thunderstorms this 
afternoon in the far south along the MO border with that activity 
expected to push south of the area into early evening. Other issue 
would be into Friday night as may have an area of showers and 
thunderstorms move through the state into early Saturday associated 
with a stronger system expected to impact the state this weekend. 
Otherwise above average temperatures and mainly clear skies expected 
for Thursday into Friday with an area of high pressure dominating 
the region. Iowa then becomes sandwiched between the two jets and 
two troughs into the weekend. GFS and EC differ a bit in the 
strength of the northern trough skirting the northern US and pushing 
through Manitoba/Ontario Saturday. This system will slide an 
associated frontal boundary near the state Saturday with the GFS 
more progressive with the trough and the front kind of washing out 
before it gets to Iowa. The EC remains a bit strong and pushes the 
front into northern Iowa by late Saturday. Both the EC/GFS have a 
broad southern stream trough in place across the west/central US 
with a piece of energy lifting into the region by late Saturday into 
Sunday. The EC brings this energy through the state with some 
interaction with the northern stream frontal boundary with 
precipitation chances Saturday into early Sunday and then shoves the 
front south and high pressure to build in for early next week. With 
the more progressive GFS the front moves through and this system 
deepens as it lifts northeastward bringing the system through Iowa 
Sunday and greater chances for precipitation Sunday into Sunday 
night. 

Did linger some pops across the state into Sunday to account 
for the GFS, but trends over the past few days lean toward the EC 
solution. Either way the weekend looks to be a bit cooler and wetter 
with more of an active period expected into the middle of next week 
with a large cutoff trough over the west and pieces of energy set to 
eject eastward through the central US. Precipitation trends will 
impact temps next week, but currently have temps Monday through 
Wednesday warming back into the low 80s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Widespread VFR conditions across all sites for this period with 
few clouds and unrestricted visibilities. Winds increase slightly
for Thursday afternoon, from the east and southeast. 

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Beerends
AVIATION...Hagenhoff