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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX Received: 2018-03-08 17:47 UTC
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658 FXUS63 KDMX 081747 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1147 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Upper low pressure which moved across the western Great Lakes region on Wednesday will be moving east towards Pennsylvania today. Despite the transition to the east, upper northwest flow will persist today. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will move into Iowa today. Thermal profiles will remain near to slightly warmer than Wednesday and temperatures will remain seasonably cold with highs in the mid to upper 20s north to the mid to upper 30s south. Generally mostly sunny skies to start the day except for the far southwest where a few clouds are passing through. Cirrus overtopping the surface ridge may arrive by this afternoon. The forecast area will remain dry through this evening. The combination of a short wave passing across Minnesota and Wisconsin and warm advection developing in the wake of the departing ridge may result in light snow developing across South Dakota and approaching northwest Iowa by late tonight. Have kept the the forecast dry with any precipitation chances remaining to the northwest. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Bottom Line up Front... Sensible weather impacts confined to this weekend via a potentially low-impact wintry weather system. General trend towards above normal temperatures next week. Saturday through Sunday... An upper low currently located off the Pacific Coast looks to come onshore today, riding along the U.S./Canada border and dropping down through the Plains Region Saturday into Sunday. Models initialize well with this low, but are somewhat struggling with run-to-run consistency of its track on the leeward side of the Rockies... dropping confidence to medium/low-medium. Continued from the previous AFD, the GFS has been the most bullish with this system as it develops a closed sfc low which it propagates through Nebraska and into western Missouri Saturday into Sunday morning. The 00z Thu ECMWF/00z NAM tend to have a more flatter wave/inverted trough versus the closed sfc low of the GFS. At this point, find it difficult to back either of the general solution camps, so have gone with a blend. Obviously, if the GFS solution pans out, snowfall amounts and subsequent impacts will have to be increased. Forecast sounding analysis keeps low-level cloud thicknesses around 3kft and under through around 00z Sun. Therefore have gone with drizzle for ptype as temps into the 40s across most of the CWA. Lower levels gradually begin to Saturday evening into Saturday night. Temperatures also fall to near to below freezing Saturday night. GFS and NAM sounding profiles drop to below-freezing aloft, with no warm nose aloft. With CAA continuing, warm nose aloft to not develop Sunday, so keeping with either rain or snow mix and have nixed sleet/freezing rain mention. Even with the more ambitious general forcing with the GFS, profile does not saturate very much per the GFS soundings. So finding it plausible to begin a downward trend to QPF.... and subsequently any snow accumulation. Impact-wise, impacts from this system appear to be minimal at this time. By Sunday late morning/early afternoon, temperatures should be near to above freezing across most of the CWA. This means any snow that may have accumulated should melt off of most roadways and surfaces. Impacts will likely arise from slippery surfaces and reduced visibility confined to the time period of Saturday night through Sunday morning. Monday and Beyond... Behind this weekend's system, long-range models have been extremely consistent in blasting a 1035mb sfc high pressure through the upper Midwest. Slight forecast changes have been to slow the propagation of this high. Yesterday's 00z runs had the high near western Iowa by 06z Tue. Today's 00z runs have the high near western Iowa by 06z Wed. So, have lowered Wednesday and Thursday highs in anticipation of WAA being delayed until Thu-Fri. By late-week, as this high propagates east of the CWA, 850mb temps of +10C may make it to Iowa... which would likely translate to highs in the 50s and probably 60s across Iowa. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon/ Issued at 1147 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Have a SCT MVFR CU deck currently at KOTM and KDSM and could see this become a CIG this afternoon, but it also may lift to low VFR as it does. Otherwise some mid/high clouds moving in late tonight into early Friday. Northwesterly winds becoming easterly through the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Donavon LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...Beerends