National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX Received: 2018-03-08 05:28 UTC

FXUS63 KDMX 080528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1128 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018

Upper shortwave dropping through the larger upper level trough 
currently moving through SE SD on water vapor imagery. This wave to 
continue drop south/southeast through the evening hours before 
moving south of the area by late tonight. Therefore expect the area 
of light snow across the west/southwest half of the forecast area to 
persist into the early evening hours, before diminishing from north 
to south and pushing into MO by late evening. Still seeing some 
higher returns on radar and lowered visibilities at observation 
sites along the eastern edge of the area of snow and expect a fairly 
decent band of snow within the broader area of light snow to 
continue spread southeastward toward Chariton, Albia and Centerville 
toward early evening. Still expecting some lowered visibilities 
within the snow area into the evening, and as the sun sets could see 
more travel issues especially within the heavier band as roads temps 
cool. After the area of snow diminishes tonight, dry conditions are 
expected for late tonight into Thursday as the area of high pressure 
situated to the west of the state will build eastward into Iowa. 
Ridge axis to be in place across Iowa Thursday with cooler flow and 
cooler air remaining in place. Therefore still expect to see cooler 
temps with highs remaining in the mid 20s to mid 30s. 

.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018

Return flow to set up across the state into Friday as Warmer air 
beings to move back into the state ahead of a weather system 
expected to impact the state this weekend. This should allow for 
temps to warm into the 30s/40s for Friday. An upper trough to move 
from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains/Iowa Saturday 
into Sunday. EC/GFS/NAM showing some discrepancies in 
strength/timing with the GFS more bullish with this wave. EC/NAM 
more limited in moisture and a bit slower with the wave dropping 
through the state. Have some low pops in there for Saturday to 
account for the GFS solution, but have trended toward the EC at this 
time with the greater chances for precipitation coming Saturday 
night and into early Sunday. Soundings indicating cool enough 
thermal profiles for light snow across the north, with rain further 
south initially and then a mix into Saturday night/Sunday. Both the 
GFS/EC indicate another lobe of energy moving just to the south of 
the state through MO and into the OH Valley Saturday night. If this 
occurs, available moisture from the Gulf likely to get zapped by the 
southern system thus limiting the moisture further north. Therefore 
like the drier trend in the EC solution as well. Dry conditions then 
expected into Monday through early next week. Cooler northerly flow 
to remain in place though so temps to stay cooler into Monday, and 
then start to recover some toward mid-week and warm into late week 
with an upper ridge building east and the thermal ridge building 
across the region just beyond the current forecast period.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1128 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018

Band of low clouds continues to diminish in size tonight and this
will continue as subsidence increases over the state. Expect VFR
conditions for the forecast period at TAF sites with northwest
surface flow through tomorrow before becoming light tomorrow
night. Visibilities will remain unrestricted for the duration of
the forecast.





SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends