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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX Received: 2018-03-08 05:28 UTC
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472 FXUS63 KDMX 080528 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1128 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Upper shortwave dropping through the larger upper level trough currently moving through SE SD on water vapor imagery. This wave to continue drop south/southeast through the evening hours before moving south of the area by late tonight. Therefore expect the area of light snow across the west/southwest half of the forecast area to persist into the early evening hours, before diminishing from north to south and pushing into MO by late evening. Still seeing some higher returns on radar and lowered visibilities at observation sites along the eastern edge of the area of snow and expect a fairly decent band of snow within the broader area of light snow to continue spread southeastward toward Chariton, Albia and Centerville toward early evening. Still expecting some lowered visibilities within the snow area into the evening, and as the sun sets could see more travel issues especially within the heavier band as roads temps cool. After the area of snow diminishes tonight, dry conditions are expected for late tonight into Thursday as the area of high pressure situated to the west of the state will build eastward into Iowa. Ridge axis to be in place across Iowa Thursday with cooler flow and cooler air remaining in place. Therefore still expect to see cooler temps with highs remaining in the mid 20s to mid 30s. .LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/ Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Return flow to set up across the state into Friday as Warmer air beings to move back into the state ahead of a weather system expected to impact the state this weekend. This should allow for temps to warm into the 30s/40s for Friday. An upper trough to move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains/Iowa Saturday into Sunday. EC/GFS/NAM showing some discrepancies in strength/timing with the GFS more bullish with this wave. EC/NAM more limited in moisture and a bit slower with the wave dropping through the state. Have some low pops in there for Saturday to account for the GFS solution, but have trended toward the EC at this time with the greater chances for precipitation coming Saturday night and into early Sunday. Soundings indicating cool enough thermal profiles for light snow across the north, with rain further south initially and then a mix into Saturday night/Sunday. Both the GFS/EC indicate another lobe of energy moving just to the south of the state through MO and into the OH Valley Saturday night. If this occurs, available moisture from the Gulf likely to get zapped by the southern system thus limiting the moisture further north. Therefore like the drier trend in the EC solution as well. Dry conditions then expected into Monday through early next week. Cooler northerly flow to remain in place though so temps to stay cooler into Monday, and then start to recover some toward mid-week and warm into late week with an upper ridge building east and the thermal ridge building across the region just beyond the current forecast period. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/ Issued at 1128 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Band of low clouds continues to diminish in size tonight and this will continue as subsidence increases over the state. Expect VFR conditions for the forecast period at TAF sites with northwest surface flow through tomorrow before becoming light tomorrow night. Visibilities will remain unrestricted for the duration of the forecast. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Beerends LONG TERM...Beerends AVIATION...Cogil