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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDDC Received: 2012-03-15 20:51 UTC


257 
FXUS63 KDDC 152051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

12Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN KANSAS. ONE
WAS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 18Z WHILE THE
NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS BAJA UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY WHICH
WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR A DRY LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
TO EXTEND FROM NEAR GREAT BEND TO COLDWATER. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY 00Z SATURDAY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE IMPROVES. BASED ON THIS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS DRY
LINE AFTER 4 PM AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS DRY LINE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS. WITH 850MB 00Z SATURDAY MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE 80 TO NEAR 85 DEGREES THIS WOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE,
HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM 18Z FRIDAY
TO 00Z SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. AS A RESULT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY LINE WHICH WAS LOCATED EAST OF DODGE CITY AS
OF 18Z WILL MOVE WEST TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. NAM BURF SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE A VERY DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE SO STATUS MAY BE LESS OF AN ISSUE BUT PATCH FOG EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE
ALL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS SECTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS GENERALLY THE 
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE 
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE 
TO DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES 
ALOFT. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATES, THAT FOR ANY 
CONVECTIVE INITIATION, THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY 
PLAY A LARGE ROLE, SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. FRIDAY 
EVENING COULD BRING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HOWEVER AS THE 
LEADING EDGE OF A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT JET MAY PRODUCE A THERMALLY 
INDIRECT VERTICAL CIRCULATION NEAR THE OKLAHOMA LINE IN THE EVENING. 
HOWEVER, SATURDAY REALLY DOESN'T APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE.  

SUNDAY WILL BE A WINDIER DAY IF THE GFS MOS VERIFIES. THE GRADIENT 
OUT AHEAD OF THIS INCOMING WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONGER AND 
SUPPORT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOWHERE NEAR 
AS STRONG AS THE 35 TO 40 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS OF THE MOS THOUGH. 
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AS WELL WITH THIS PATTERN 
DEVELOPING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON 
THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS 
ON SUNDAY NIGHT (OVERNIGHT). THE HIGHEST POPS THEN ARE REALLY ON 
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT CHANCES ARE INCLUDED 
FORECAST AREA WIDE.   


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

LOW CLOUDS, MAINLY MVFR CIGS, WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WAS LOCATED EAST OF DODGE CITY. WITH THIS SURFACE MOVING
VERY LITTLE TODAY THIS WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST. AT HAYS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST THE LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z. TONIGHT THE DRY LINE/SURFACE LOW MOVES WEST OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN WESTWARD TOWARDS DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

DRY AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 
SATURDAY AND AGAIN PERHAPS ON SUNDAY. POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IN THE 
AFTERNOON WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON THE OVERALL RISK. THE WESTERN 
COUNTIES WERE PLACED UNDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MID MARCH INDICATES THAT 
IF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ACHIEVED, THE RISK MAY LAST INTO THE 
EVENING SINCE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  83  55  81 /   0  10  20  10 
GCK  46  84  51  84 /   0  10  10   0 
EHA  46  83  48  82 /   0   0  10   0 
LBL  47  84  52  82 /   0  10  20   0 
HYS  50  82  57  81 /  10  10  10  10 
P28  55  82  60  79 /  10  20  30  10 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY 
EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT 
LONG TERM....RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT