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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCAR Received: 2017-01-24 15:32 UTC


619 
FXUS61 KCAR 241532
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1032 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from the mid Atlantic coast will move northeast
toward the Gulf of Maine today...then slowly across the Canadian
Maritimes Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 am update...
Sloppy, gloppy mess underway acrs CWA this morning. Temps hv
"warmed" up to 32F along the immediate coast with reports of 0.1
to 0.3 inches of ice along the Hancock and Washington coasts. BGR
has been flipping back and forth between heavy sleet and frzg rain
as the warm nose noted on the 12z GYX raob varies. As the precip
mvs north, MLT is now reporting snow but not expecting this to last
long. May see a couple of snow on the front side of the storm
before quickly switching ovr to sleet. The exception wl be acrs
the North Woods and the Allagash where cold airmass hangs in the
longest. 

Only chg to prior fcst was to beef up the ice amnts fm about a
Bangor to Princeton and Danforth line with ice accums of ovr 0.5
inches possible. Hwvr, with the way reports hv been coming in with
flipping back and forth btwn sleet and fzra am not confident enuf
to issue ice storm warning. Hv re-issued and re-grouped WSW to
highlight the significant icing threat for srn zones. Only
marginal chgs needed, mostly to sfc temps for the day as cold
air-damming is taking hold. 

previous discussion blo...
Latest surface analysis shows 987mb low centered south of Long
Island. Current radar mosaic shows precipitation beginning to move
north into down east coast. Expect the precipitation to continue
to expand northward across the region this morning, reaching the
Bangor area before daybreak and the St. John Valley by noon time.

Across northern and central areas expect precipitation to begin as
a period of snow this morning before mixing with and changing to
sleet by afternoon. Across the upper Penobscot Valley, interior
down east,and the greater Bangor area, expect a brief period of
snow this morning to quickly transition to sleet and freezing
rain. Along the down east coast, expect a period of snow, sleet,
and freezing rain this morning to quickly transition to plain rain
by afternoon as easterly winds transport mild air in off the gulf
of Maine.

As the low continues to track north through the Gulf of Maine this
evening expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain to
continue through tonight. Some warmer air will will begin to move
into interior down east areas with precipitation transitioning to
rain late tonight.

Winter Storm Warnings continue in effect for all of northern
and down east Maine into Wednesday while a Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect until 1 pm this afternoon for the
downeast coast. A wind advisory remains in effect along the down
east coast until 7 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We did increase fcst 6 hrly QPFs for the Wed 12-18z and 18-24z pds
based on the consensus of the model trends, but not quite as much
given some differences in how each model shows the back edge of
precip clrg the region. In any event, corresponding snfl and icg
will be much lighter than the prev ovrngt pd, with little
component in the overall stm totals and with little chg in the stm
total sn/sleet and ice totals xpctd at the conclusion of this
event from recent prior fcst updates.

Any freezing rain and sleet should end by Wed eve as mid lvl temps
cool, leaving msly sct sn sn shwrs N and sct rn/sn shwrs Downeast
Wed ngt...contg thru Thu ngt as a series of weak upper lvl
disturbances cross the region. Our region will then get a brief
break between systems Fri into Fri eve with cooler hi/low temps
compared to the very mild temps of Wed thru Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Additional s/wv trofs with substantial lowering of 500mb hts will
arrive Sat with additional sn shwr activity into Sun with
marginal arctic air which should bring fcst hi temps closer to
seasonal norms. Lingering upper troffiness ovr the region Mon will
also keep cldnss and sct flurries ovr the region with somewhat
moderating day tm temps. Ngt tm temps will also be colder, but due
to cld cvr and wind, will remain abv avg for this tm of the
season.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR conditions are expected to develop from
south to north this morning in a wintry mix of precipitation from
KBGR on north to KFVE, with significant ice and sleet
accumulations expected through tonight. Northeast winds will
increase and gust to around 30 kt at times later today and
tonight. Expect a wintry mix at KBHB this morning to transition to
all rain by afternoon.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR conditions in rn/mixed precip on Wed will
transition upwards to MVFR clgs Wed ngt thru Sat with ocnl rn/sn
shwrs thru Thu and sn shwrs aftwrds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Northeast winds will continue to increase this morning
with gusts to around 50 kt possible into this afternoon. A Storm
Warning Remains in effect for the outer waters through this
afternoon and a Gale Warning is up for the intra-coastal zone.
Will need to transition to a Gale Warning from late this afternoon
through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly SCA conditions will continue thru the
rest of the marine fcst pds. Went with to about a foot abv WW3 wv
guidance for fcst wv hts.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for 
     MEZ029-030.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
     Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Farrar
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/Farrar/VJN
Marine...Duda/Farrar/VJN