National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2012-06-20 18:59 UTC


616 
FXUS64 KBRO 201859
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
159 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...IT APPEARS THE CLOUD 
COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO ALLOW THE 
ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR THE MOMENT AND ALSO 
APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING THE SEABREEZE FRONT AS WELL. WITH NO FOCUS 
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOT CONFIDENT IN SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY 
AS THE WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND 
ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SPREAD WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUES REMAIN NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURS 
AFTERNOON. 

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER BAJA CA PUSHES 
EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS 
AND CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD BLOCKING ALL THE LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE LIMITING THE CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE VALLEY FOR 
THE WEEKEND. A VERY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN 
WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. 
GFS/NAM/CMC AND ECMWF 12Z RUN ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING 
MORE ORGANIZE WHICH COULD PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS AGREED ON KEEPING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN 
SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST. A MODERATE TO STRONG CAP OVERHEAD 
STRENGTHENS AS THE RIDGE ENLARGE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND THE 
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST ATTEMPTS TO MOVE 
INLAND BUT ARE QUICKLY DIVERTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS THE HIGH 
RETURN FLOW IS STRONG. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DONE TO TE HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ARE IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE RGV 
REACHING THE 100S IN THE HALF WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY MID 
WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST FOR THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. 


&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH 
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE 
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT 
BEFORE THEY BACK TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO 
THURS NIGHT AS A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OFFSHORE THE 
LOWER TEXAS COAST SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCEC TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY 
BECOMING 3 TO 4 FEET BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH 
INTO TOMORROW AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT ERRATIC 
WINDS WITHIN THESE STORMS...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND 
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO 
SHIFT MORE EASTERLY/NORTHEAST AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE 
MIGRATES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN 
DURING THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. DO NOT 
EXPECT ANY SCEC OR SCA FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  88  75  90 /  50  30  20  10 
BROWNSVILLE          74  90  74  92 /  30  30  20  10 
HARLINGEN            74  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  10 
MCALLEN              75  94  76  96 /  20  50  30  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  95  75  95 /  10  50  30  20 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  86  78  88 /  50  30  20  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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