National Weather Service Raw Text Product

658 
FXUS62 KTAE 260308
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1008 PM EST Tue Dec 25 2012

...A Tornado watch remains in effect until 10 PM CST for all of
SE AL, the FL Panhandle and the adjacent waters...

...Severe weather is expected across much of the area overnight...

The N-S convergence line that developed from the coastal waters well 
south of Destin NNE towards Wrn Walton, Wrn Geneva and Cntrl Coffee 
counties in SE AL during the late aftn/early eve weakened and moved 
east around 945 pm est to a line from offshore Bay newd thru, 
Washington, Houston and Quitman counties. As a result we are 
experiencing a brief and relative lull in the severe wx. However,
latest radar pix show higher capes beginning to nose up into this 
area and a marine warning was issued and activity is picking yup 
around panama city.   

Latest meso-analysis shows a deepening low over w/Cntrl ms with 
assocd warm front extending ESE across srn AL and SW GA. south of 
boundary dew points in the LWR to mid 60s. current TAE VWP with 
150-200 m2/s2 0-1 storm relative helicity. Looking upstream, 
intensifying H5 trough becoming increasingly negatively tilted with 
intensifying 45-55kt LLJ spreading ewd. at 945 pm est, cold front 
extended from se la/SW ms border into the gulf of Mex with QLCS 
squall line advancing EWD across e/Cntrl al. With H5 jet and overall 
winds increasing, all indications are that squall will arrive about 
an hour faster than previously expected. Very strong low level shear 
persists with storm relative helicity expected to increase locally 
to  300-500 ms/s2 next few hours. This would support vigorous 
updrafts as line moves ewd and approaches wrn counties around 
midnight est, wrn big bend around 2-3 am and Ern Big Bend and 
adjacent GA 3-4 am exiting our area around 5-6 am. this squall will 
support a wind damage threat. Also cant discount some tornadoes. 
altho airmass east of Apalachicola currently not very unstable, 
expect this to change as line advances ewd.  

&&

.AVIATION...[Through 00z Thursday]
Strong convection is expected to develop across the area, some of 
which could be very severe overnight. The main period of strongest 
activity is expected across the area tonight between 04Z to 12Z 
along a fast moving windy squall line ahead of a rapidly moving cold 
front. Winds will shift sharply from southerly to westerly behind 
this front. MVFR cigs/vsbys and gusty onshore winds will accompany 
these systems. IFR and even brief LIFR possible with any heavy rain. 
After cold exits, MVFR cigs and vsbys in fog persist into mid to late
morning from west to east. strong and very gusty west then nw west 
winds in wake of front until close to sunset.  

&&

.MARINE...
A very powerful squall line develops out ahead of the approaching 
Cold Front overnight. Gale Force winds (or frequent gusts) and seas 
will overtake the marine area, with even stronger winds in the 
vicinity of any thunderstorms. These gale conditions will linger for 
a while out of the west behind the Cold Front during the first half 
of Wednesday, before slightly diminishing back to Advisory levels 
out of the northwest into Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is expected to receive an additional 1 to 2 
inches of rainfall during the next 12 hrs. This may cause some 
minor rises along area rivers, but due to low flows in area basins, 
no significant rises are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  64  34  52  33 /100  30  10   0  10 
Panama City   56  62  38  52  43 /100  10  10   0  10 
Dothan        50  55  32  49  33 /100  10  10   0  10 
Albany        54  59  31  50  32 /100  30  10   0  10 
Valdosta      58  63  34  52  32 /100  90  10   0  10 
Cross City    58  67  36  56  32 /100 100  10   0  10 
Apalachicola  61  65  39  53  46 /100  20  10   0  10 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ to 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ 
     Wednesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal 
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Wednesday for 
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Wednesday for Baker-Ben 
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.
AL...WIND ADVISORY from 6 AM to 4 PM CST Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee 
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee 
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee 
     River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from 
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from 
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday 
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to 
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From 
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal 
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 
     NM. 
     GALE WARNING from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay 
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River 
     Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to 
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee 
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee 
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for Coastal 
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters 
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
     GALE WARNING until 1 PM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters from 
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from 
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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