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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX Received: 2018-01-03 17:39 UTC
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069 FXUS63 KDMX 031739 CCA AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1139 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...Updated Aviation Discussion for 18Z TAFS Below... .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Lingering light snow showers/flurries and some patchy blowing this morning over the south. The back edge of the stratus looks to clear the CWA by around 12-13z this morning and thus the snow should end by that time across southern Iowa. Certainly some brief white knuckle driving this morning along and south of Interstate 80 with the falling snow and blowing snow potential. The stout north to northwest winds will persist throughout the day today creating a very raw day across the state. Over the far north central portions of the forecast area, generally along and north of Highway 20, these locations look to dip to the -20F wind chill for a few hours b/t 12-17z. Will handle with an SPS for now as an advisory seem overkill due to the recent bitter cold snap and the fact that conditions were short-lived and improving this morning. Now, that being said, tonight into Thursday morning is a different story. Much longer duration, more widespread wind chill values of 20 below or less, and there are a few locations that could experience even 30 below wind chills at times Thursday morning. Thus, confident to hoist a Wind Chill Advisory for much of the CWA late tonight through mid-morning Thursday. For temperatures, leaned closer to the GFS/ECMWF as the NAM was too warm. Utilized the SREF for winds today into tonight which resulted in nudging up winds slight this afternoon and during the overnight hours. The center of the surface high pressure really doesn't move into the state until after 12z Thursday and the pressure gradient looks to remain strong enough overnight across the north and east to keep winds up b/t 5-10 mph. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Next round of arctic air will be in place on Thursday with highs struggling into the single digits by afternoon. Wind chills will be at or near criteria early in the period although overall wind speeds will be marginal as high pressure will be nearby. Still appears that a weak wave will move south toward the state later Thursday into Thursday night. While not as robust as in previous models runs, enough weak forcing and saturation in dendritic zone should be sufficient for at least some light snow/flurries into Thursday night and have continued this threat in the forecast. Surface ridge will then slide through eastern Iowa late Friday into Friday night with very cold air remaining in the state. A system dropping through the intermountain west and into the lower Missouri River valley will impact the state this weekend. Initially, warm advection is expected to intensify on Saturday on the backside of the departing surface high as thermal ridging builds into the Plains. This will persist into Sunday with steady or rising temperatures on Saturday night and readings likely climbing above freezing across the southern two-thirds or so of the state. Both GFS and Euro have the bulk of moisture transport and forcing south of Iowa but does bring some weak to moderate isentropic lift into the state producing some light precipitation. It appears temperatures will be warm enough in the far south for primarily rain with a rain/snow line somewhere in the middle of the state near the I80/Highway 30 corridor, although any precipitation that far north will likely be quite light. Lingering forcing associated with weak deformation area will persist into Sunday night before ending. Cold advection will increase by this time on the backside of the system and persist into Monday with colder and drier conditions into Tuesday. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/ Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this period. Several METARS /e.g. KMCW/ are reporting occasional IFR CIGS associated with suspended ice crystals. However webcams and satellite imagery continue to show clear skies across Iowa. Expect gusty northwest winds thru early evening...which could result in some minor drifting snow on runways. Winds will diminish in the late evening and overnight. A suspected comms issue is leading to several missing elements at KOTM. Have included AMD NOT SKED while maintenance/troubleshooting is ongoing. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-045>050-058>062-071>075- 082>086-093>097. && $$ SHORT TERM...Podrazik LONG TERM...Cogil AVIATION...Fowle