National Weather Service Raw Text Product

550 
FXUS62 KTAE 261149
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
649 AM EST Wed Dec 26 2012


...Tornado watch #698 has been cancelled...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
The fairly strong squall line out ahead of the approaching Cold 
Front continues to march eastward across the eastern third to one 
half of the region this morning. While the Tornadic threat has 
significantly diminished (due to decreasing instability and cooler 
shelf waters from Apalachee Bay), a few strong storms with gusty 
winds and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible as this line 
moves through.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Much cooler and drier air will continue to build in behind the Cold 
Front today on gusty W-NW winds, which are expected to be strong for 
a Wind Advisory. These winds will gradually diminish during the 
evening and overnight hours, which will allow low temps to drop to 
between 30 and 35 degrees in many areas tonight. However, it is 
still a bit too early to call whether any locations will meet the  
durations required for a freeze warning, but this may require a 
second look this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...
High Pressure with fair and dry weather will dominate conditions 
across the region on Thursday, but High Temps will still be below 
normal in the mid to upper 50s. This dry weather will be short 
lived, however, as a weak low pressure begins to develop off to our 
west along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of some light rain 
returning to western parts of the area by Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Thursday]...
A progressive pattern will remain in place through the period with 
the GFS and ECMWF agreeing that the next rain maker will move into 
the area on Saturday. This system currently does not look nearly as 
impressive in terms of convective potential as the system we are 
dealing with now, and the official forecast only carries a slight 
chance of thunder close to the coast. For the most part, 
temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of the seasonal 
averages, except cooler than average Thursday night as weak high 
pressure temporarily builds in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION 
[Through 12z Thursday] Gusty westerly winds will be the main story 
behind the cold front. Gusts around 25 knots are expected at all TAF 
sites. Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but there 
could be a brief window of MVFR cigs around KABY and KDHN.  

&&

.MARINE...
The powerful squall line has moved through the western portion of 
the Coastal Waters early this morning, and will be moving through 
the eastern legs until an hour or two after sunrise. Gale Force 
winds (and/or frequent gusts) with high seas will overtake the marine 
area from west to east, and linger into early this afternoon. Once 
the Gale has subsided, Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger 
across the waters until late tonight. Lighter winds and lower seas 
are expected by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no red flag concerns for the next several days. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The 1 to 2 inches of recent rainfall  may cause some minor rises 
along area rivers. However, due to low flows in area basins, no 
significant rises are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  32  57  33  64 / 30   0   0  10  10 
Panama City   60  36  55  42  62 / 10   0   0  10  20 
Dothan        54  31  54  34  59 / 10   0   0  10  20 
Albany        56  30  55  31  60 / 20   0   0  10  10 
Valdosta      61  32  56  31  62 / 50   0   0  10  10 
Cross City    65  32  60  33  66 / 50   0   0  10  10 
Apalachicola  63  38  54  43  62 / 20   0   0  10  20 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon for 
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal 
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland 
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for 
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

AL...WIND ADVISORY until 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...GALE WARNING until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee Bay 
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River 
     Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to 
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee 
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from 
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee 
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from 
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST 
     Thursday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton 
     Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters 
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 
     NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 
     to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 
     60 NM. 
     
&&

$$

MESOSCALE UPDATE...Gould 
NEAR TERM...Gould 
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...DVD/Block 
AVIATION...Gould/DVD 
MARINE...Gould 
FIRE WEATHER...DVD 
HYDROLOGY...Gould