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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLMK Received: 2016-02-29 15:54 UTC
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047 FXUS63 KLMK 291554 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1054 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 ...Forecast Update... Updated 1055 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016 Just did a quick refresh of the grids to align hourly T/Td/Sky grids with current observations. Current readings across the region are in the upper 30s to the lower-mid 40s. With full sun, we'll still be battling cold air advection, so afternoon highs in the lower-mid 50s in the north with mid-upper 50s to around 60 across the south still looks on target. .SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)... Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016 Well...here is the Leap Year addition of the AFD, much different than the last Leap Year mid shift 4 years ago with several twisters on the mid shift in Illinois, including an EF4 in Harrisburg IL, and then more tornadoes hitting Etown, Clarkson, and Hodgenville in Kentucky during the day. Anyway, line of prefrontal showers along I 71 racing east at 50 mph early this morning. This has been producing pea size hail and several wind gusts 35 to 45 mph. That is not counting some gusts approaching 50 mph with the first scattered area of showers with steep llvl lapse rate and mid level entrainment and had several bursts of wind. Winds are settling down. Actual front is the last weak line of shra across southern IN. Once this passes thru that's the end of the pcpn for the day. The clouds will thin quickly from the west, but cyclonic flow over the Land of Lincoln will swing 4-5 hour band of stratocu in the northern Bluegrass and then that area too will enjoy some nice sunshine with wnw winds backing to sw-wly winds this aftn. Despite the clearing of the clouds the CAA will fight some modest sunshine, and am planning 54-58 F under high pressure. Looking for lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with clouds increasing after midnight. Tue...northern stream over Hawkeye State to Land of Lincoln will phase with southern stream system over the Sooner State and dominant sfc low across the Ohio Valley. This brings an all day rain with 100% POPS with decent omega fields, strong upper jet, and a cornucopia of moisture too. Latest model run has sfc low swinging across south central IN allowing for some limited instability ahead of the actual front. The wind fields are quite impressive at H8-H5, with 850 mb winds of 55kts at 18z Tue and H5 jet of 75-80 kts by Wed 00z. Typical late winter event with increasing deep layer shear and overall impressive kinematics. SPC has area in a slight risk, and there could be a few strong storms, sounding profiles support a few strong storms, especially small to mdt hail with such a low WBZ with steep mid level lapse rates from 650 mb to 450 mb. Right now, not playing up this event due to saturated airmass, if the clouds were to thin out a little more, the threat would amp up. .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016 Well...depending on how fast the cold air moves in late Tuesday night, a very brief period of light snow may be possible, but think for the most part this system will be a rain maker with half an inch to an inch of rain across most locations. Kept current fcst going with shra/snsh light quick mix. Wednesday should be mostly dry with clearing skies and some cool sunshine with highs in the lower 40s and lows Wednesday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Thu into Thu night will be the next chance for precipitation as another shortwave moves through the region. Any precipitation during the day Thursday should be rain as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 40s. Once again...as the cold air wraps in there could be a brief changeover to snow and kept the same exact fcst as the previous day shift fcstr. Beyond Thursday night, models going mainly dry forecast for now with temperatures rising again into the weekend. Both GFS and Euro bring transitory high amplitude ridge into the CWA next Mon-Tue which would a bring some abv normal spring like temps, if this comes to fruition. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 629 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016 Deck of stratocu bringing MVFR cigs to SDF and LEX will pivot off to the east by mid day, with clear skies this afternoon. The clouds should remain north of BWG. Winds today and tonight will be much lighter than yesterday as high pressure quickly crosses the Tennessee Valley. Low pressure moving up the Ohio River on Tuesday will bring showers and overcast skies to SDF after 12Z. Will keep the TAF on the low end of VFR for now but that may need to be adjusted downward in future issuances. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....JDG Long Term......JDG Aviation.......13