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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2016-10-01 07:10 UTC
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475 FXUS63 KIWX 010710 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 310 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 A slow moving upper level disturbance will generate numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms today. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. Conditions will gradually improve Sunday into Monday though as this low pressure system exits the region. Dry weather expected by Monday and Tuesday with temperatures gradually rising. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Cutoff upper low slowly inching northward this morning and is expected to be directly overhead for most of the day today with 500mb heights remaining around 563 dam. Yet another surge of 295K isentropic ascent and 850-700mb fgen associated with vorticity spoke rotating north this morning. This is generating numerous showers across our eastern counties at press time that will continue to pivot westward through early morning. As previously suspected, cold pool aloft (500mb temps below -20C) and surface dewpoints near 60F supporting several thunderstorms even into the late overnight period. Latest hi-res guidance indicates this activity will continue through the early morning with a brief break possible during the late morning/midday as vort max moves directly overhead, cutting off CVA forcing. However, filtered insolation, relatively moist low levels, and cold temps aloft will lead to modest destabilization during the mid-late afternoon (uncapped SBCAPEs of 300-500 J/kg) and a few showers/storms expected to redevelop. Coverage somewhat in question (especially in our east) given limited forcing and instability but will maintain previous low-end likely PoP's as most areas expected to see a shower at some point. Precip will taper off this evening as upper low finally begins to lift NE. Overnight period could end up largely dry with building heights/AVA and increasing stability. Did lower PoP's (especially after 03Z) but hesitant to go completely dry given lingering moisture/cyclonic flow. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, though perhaps a few degrees warmer in some spots. Generally cloudy conditions expected but a few peaks of sun/thinning clouds not out of the question with a few pockets of drier air being wrapped into the system. Forecast soundings indicate enough diurnal mixing to support highs in the mid to perhaps upper 60s. Lows tonight likely a few degrees cooler as slightly drier air slowly works into the area on backside of departing low. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Lingering moist/cyclonic flow will continue into Sunday and with the added benefit of diurnal destabilization and relatively warm Great Lakes, a few SCT showers may be possible, primarily during the afternoon and mainly in our N/NE counties. Latest models now indicating embedded shortwave will be a bit weaker and further NE than indicated last night so will trim back PoP's even further. Still expect a fair amount of cu/stratocu on Sunday but more sun anticipated and highs should make a run at 70F. Upper low is finally shunted far enough NE Sunday night to allow stout mid/upper level ridge to build across the Great Lakes, downstream of deep western CONUS trough. This will result in fair weather for the first half of the work week with highs building into the upper 70s by Wednesday. Medium range deterministic models continue to struggle with details of evolving pattern for late in the week. Ejecting trough will eventually send a cold front through our area but timing remains uncertain. Stuck close to previous forecast highlighting Thurs/Thurs night with best chances for rain. Cooler and drier conditions expect Fri and Sat. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1249 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 Large vertically stacked low centered over sern IN will drift n-ne into sern MI during the next 24hrs. Deeper moisture has wrapped around this system with somewhat drier air near the center which should move across nrn indiana this aftn/eve allowing flight conditions to improve to vfr, but diurnal heating should also allow for an increase in convection during this time frame. In the meantime expect mvfr/ifr cigs with sct shra to cont. Some potential for fog developing early this morning given light winds and moist low levels, but cloud cover may prevent this. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana