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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2016-06-25 05:02 UTC
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846 FXUS63 KGRR 250502 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 102 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 A warm weekend with some chance for some showers/thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. A fairly quiet and comfortable week ahead with only a slim chances for showers on Monday night and Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Mostly quiet first half of the weekend with dry and hot weather expected for Saturday and much of Saturday evening before a cold front begins to work toward Michigan. This front will work through late Saturday night and Sunday bringing a chance for showers and even a rumble of thunder during the overnight/early morning period and again Sunday afternoon/evening. Looks like overnight/early morning shower activity will be weakening as it works across Lake Michigan as forcing really lacking so really not expecting too much of anything with this initial push. Better chance for showers/storms comes in the afternoon/evening time frame and even this still has limited confidence at this time. Surface heating a key component and this could be limited by lingering clouds from the earlier in the day activity. Other limitation at this time is the lack of really good mid level lapse rates. Models are hinting at good chance for convection in the afternoon/evening especially in the eastern and southeastern portions of the forecast area so something to keep an eye on. Front and any showers/storms that develop leave the region quickly Sunday night ushering in the air mass that will bring a pleasant long term period. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Overall the theme of relatively quiet weather continues in the long term period. For now...high pressure is shown to control our weather through most of the week. Some instability does try to develop on Monday...but this risk for storms is low given the lack of forcing during the day. As the atmosphere stabilizes at night...the mid level trough does sharpen up. If this forcing arrives sooner...a better risk for thunderstorms would exist. So will need to monitor trends here. Another shortwave may track into the region Thursday or Friday. The 00z High Res Euro generally keeps this system south of MI. The new GFS has it tracking into MI Thursday night and Friday. For now...will keep the risk for showers and even a few thunderstorms going. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016 We'll be looking at mainly clear skies during the next 24 hours. Sct-bkn CI will begin to move over Lower Michigan later this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Winds and waves will continue to be light through tonight and Saturday. As weather approaches Saturday night into early Sunday, an increase in wind and waves over Lake Michigan is expected. Generally this increase should be to less than 15 knots and under 3 foot waves that should last through Sunday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Up to around a half inch of rain is possible Saturday night into Sunday night. River levels are running at to a little below normal and flooding is not expected through the week. && .GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maczko SHORT TERM...Maczko LONG TERM...MJS AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...Maczko