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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMTR Received: 2016-05-31 20:48 UTC
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581 FXUS66 KMTR 312048 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 148 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will promote a warming trend across the forecast area which is expected to stretch into Saturday. Inland temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to upper 90s with even a few 100s. Meanwhile coastal locations will remain cool. An upper level storm system will approach the Southern California Coast by the weekend bringing cooler temperatures to our area on by Sunday. && .Discussion...as of 1:49 PM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies are being reported across the forecast area this afternoon. However...the current visible satellite image does show stratus along the coast and the Fort Ord Profiler is indicating a marine layer with a depth of 1000 feet. Under mostly clear skies the forecast area has warmed into the mid 80s to low 90s inland. Temperatures remain in the upper 50s to low 60s along the immediate coast. Currently the satellite water vapour image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned over California with a low pressure center pushing through the Desert Southwest. Additionally, a low pressure system remains centered approximately 1000 miles off of the Southern California coast. The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement through the weekend. Both models maintain a ridge of high pressure over California through at least Friday. Generally light winds are expected at the surface through weekend. The combination of high pressure aloft and light surface winds will result in a warming trend this week. For the most part temperatures will peak on Friday, but the inland areas will remain hot on Saturday. Again the warmest temperatures are expected to occur inland with coastal temperatures remaining on the cool side. During this period of hot weather the airmass will remain dry, allowing temperatures to cool quickly at night. Therefore, no excessive heat messages are needed at this time. One exception to the cool overnight temperatures will be the Big Sur area where overnight temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday night through Saturday night. As previously discussed the forecast models have been moving an upper level low pressure system towards Southern California which will bring an end to the hot weather by Sunday. The low is expected to slide across Southern California on Sunday promoting an unstable atmospheric environment. However, nearly all of the forecast models are currently forecasting a dry atmosphere. Therefore, have removed the mention of showers from the forecast for the Saturday and Sunday time period. We will continue to assess this situation as the models evolve, keeping an eye out for any source of moisture that could fuel thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...as of 10:50 AM PDT Monday...VFR conditions persist this morning over all terminals as low clouds and fog over portions of the region have lifted and/or retreated to the coast. Wind speeds will increase slightly through late morning and early afternoon and persist into the early evening before diminishing tonight. A shallow marine layer will once again bring low clouds and potentially fog to the Monterey Bay Area terminals as well as the North Bay terminals late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Do expect most of the San Francisco Bay terminals to remain VFR through the forecast package, yet few/sct low clouds cannot be ruled out. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions. West-northwest winds increase this afternoon and diminish slightly tonight. High confidence overall, low confidence for any return of lowering ceilings or visibilities early Wednesday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions. Onshore flow will increase slightly this afternoon and diminish this evening. Shallow marine layer will likely allow for a return of low ceilings and visibilities beyond 03Z Wednesday that will continue through about 15Z. Moderate to high confidence. && .MARINE...as of 8:48 AM PDT Tuesday...Northerly winds will persist across the coastal waters as high pressure remains positioned along the West Coast. A mixed swell will continue to impact the coast with a moderate short period northwest swell and a longer period southerly swell. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Larry AVIATION: RGass MARINE: RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea