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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLMK Received: 2016-02-28 20:07 UTC
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978 FXUS63 KLMK 282007 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 307 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)... Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2016 Gusty winds will continue this afternoon into the evening ahead of the cold front approaching from the northwest. Most gusts have remained at or below 40 mph this afternoon, with the exception of HNB, which gusted to around 45 mph at one point. However, gusts since then have relaxed a bit. The magnitude of the gusts will decrease a bit this evening, but they will continue until the front passes through. Will likely keep the Special Weather Statement out for now as the higher wind gusts are mainly to the west of the forecast area. Rain showers are expected to move into southern IN this evening with a line of showers progressing towards the Ohio River through midnight. These showers will move through cental Kentucky mainly afer midnight and be out of the forecast area by dawn. NAM soundings do show some very slight elevated instability, but for the most part expect these to be just showers, so will keep the mention of thunder out of the forecast. High pressure will be moving across the region Monday and east of the area Monday night as a low pressure system begins to approach from the west. Monday will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, but cooler than today with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday night will see lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2016 By Tuesday morning winds aloft will be southwesterly as a shortwave digs into the central US. The surface low associated with this system will move out of the Midwest and across the lower Ohio Valley through the day Tuesday. The cold front associated with this system will move through Tuesday evening/night. The latest model trends with the track of the low pressure have been back to the northwest from what they were advertising over the last couple of days. This would mean a warmer system with a better chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Model soundings do show some slight instability developing. In addition, low level winds will strengthen with increasing shear and helicity through the afternoon. Though widespread severe weather is not expected, a few strong storms with gusty winds and possibly some small hail are not out of the question. Depending on how fast the cold air moves in late Tuesday night, a very brief period of light snow may be possible, but think for the most part this system will be a rain maker with half an inch to an inch orf rain not out of the question in some places. Wednesday should be mostly dry but cooler with highs in the lower 40s and lows Wednesday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Thursday into Thursday night will be the next chance for precipitation as another shortwave moves through the region. Any precipitation during the day Thursday should be rain as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 40s. This system right now looks to have precip lingering into the overnight hours as cold air builds in, so a brief changeover to snow will again be possible. Beyond Thursday night, we will go with a dry forecast for now with temperatures rising again into the weekend. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1208 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2016 Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected at the terminals this afternoon and into the evening hours. Main aviation concern this afternoon will be gusty southwesterly winds. Strongest winds will be seen at KSDF and KLEX where sustained 15-25kt with gusts to 30- 35kts will be possible. Slightly weaker winds are expected down at KBWG where max gusts will be in the 23-27kt range. Latest forecasts continue to agree that a cold front will push into the region tonight bringing a period of low end VFR cloudiness and some scattered light rain showers. Winds will remain gusty this evening and then shift to the west and subsiding overnight with the passage of the front. Clouds will quickly move out of the region with the terminals seeing VFR/SKC conditions by 29/12Z. Winds on Monday will generally be westerly at 8-10kts. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........EER Long Term.........EER Aviation..........MJ