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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-07-30 11:33 UTC
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595 FXUS64 KEWX 301133 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 633 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015 .AVIATION... SOME LOW STRATUS HAS IN FACT FORMED MAINLY OVER THE S AND SE COUNTIES...AFFECTING SSF AND SOON TO AFFECT SAT WITH LIKELY IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. SATELLITE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS FOR AUS AND DRT BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY. HAVE MENTION OF SOME MVFR/IFR VISBY AS WELL THROUGH THE MORNING AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME SITES TO DROP TO 1-2 MILES. ALL THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY. WE SAW A FEW SH/TS FORM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION. CHANCES ARE INCREASING HOWEVER AND BY FRI MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION GET INTO THE VICINITY OF AUS/SSF/SAT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... HEAT INDICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ESCARPMENT POSSIBLY REACHING 105 TO 108 DEGREES. SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING...AS AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT OVER EAST TX. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOWS SHOULD FORM OVER EAST TX WITH A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TODAY. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT PROFILE FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THE MOISTURE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR TODAY SO AM EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING ESTABLISHED AND KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. SURFACE DEW-POINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A 1-3 DEGREES DRIER THAN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE AUS/SAT TO THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR. AM NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH DOWNDRAFT ACTIVITY LATE TODAY TO MAKE AN IMPRESSION ON SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WHEN THE HEAT INDICES CLIMB AGAIN. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME STRONG STORMS. UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO HEAT TEMPS TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SO WILL CONTINUE TO NEED MENTION THE HOT CONDITIONS IN THE SPS/HWO. MODEL FORECAST DCAPES ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFT OR TWO. WILL MENTION WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE HWO. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE MOSTLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX...THE OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO COVER MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. FOR THIS EXPECTATION...WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF SATURDAY MIN TEMPS THAT ARE SHOWN TO BE QUITE WARM ON THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. LIKEWISE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND ALSO SUNDAY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS SHOW AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE WETTER NAM/DGEX FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY ARE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES HOT DESPITE THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY RAINS. THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BACK EASTWARD ACROSS TX BY MONDAY AND SET US UP FOR MORE OPPRESSIVE HEAT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 78 100 74 100 / - 20 30 20 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 74 99 72 99 / - 20 30 20 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 100 74 100 / 0 20 30 20 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 99 74 98 / 0 20 30 20 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 77 100 76 100 / 0 0 10 20 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 101 73 98 / 10 20 30 20 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 98 74 99 / 0 20 30 20 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 98 75 99 / - 20 30 20 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 76 99 75 99 / 20 20 30 20 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 78 99 76 99 / 0 20 30 20 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 78 100 75 100 / 0 20 20 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS