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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-07-30 03:17 UTC
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301 FXUS64 KEWX 300317 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1017 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 .UPDATE... ONLY FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TEMPS/SKY GRIDS. FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE SEA BREEZE. AFTER THE SUN WENT DOWN...ACTIVITY DISSIPATED QUICKLY. EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. STILL KEEPING LOW END CHANCES OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SLOW AND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/ AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/ NO MAJOR CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY SCT CONDITIONS VERSES BKN. COULD SEE A ONE OR TWO HOUR PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS BUT MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD BE SCT. SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH 03Z-05Z THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS. AFTER 16Z THU WILL SEE SELY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF FOG AT KAUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEFORE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATION WILL RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THESE LOCATIONS. UNTIL THEN...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVENT HIT 100 YET TO THE CENTURY MARK BUT TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING TRIPLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOMORROW. WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE PERFORMING AT NEARLY 99 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST WEEK...RESISTANCE TO USING THESE VALUES WOULD BE FUTILE. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. THINKING THIS WILL BE BE MIXING OUT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES AND REALLY ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE STORY...HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...EVEN OVER 2 INCHES ON THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER BUT APPRECIABLE SO WHILE STORMS MAY BE ISOLATE IN NATURE...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AS WELL. SATURDAY MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. EURO DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM COMPLEX IN THE PANHANDLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS HAS A MUCH DRIER OUTLOOK AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE GENERATION WHICH WOULD KEEP US DRY AFTER SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR NEXT WEEK...A RETURN TO A HOT AND DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO RETURN AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 99 79 100 76 / 0 0 10 30 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 98 75 99 75 / 0 - 10 30 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 10 30 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 76 99 75 / 0 0 10 30 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 77 99 76 / 0 - 10 30 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 74 99 75 / 0 0 10 20 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 76 99 75 / 0 0 10 30 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 77 100 76 / 0 10 10 30 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 98 78 99 77 / 0 0 10 30 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 77 100 76 / 0 0 10 30 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17