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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-07-29 17:23 UTC
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056 FXUS64 KEWX 291723 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 .UPDATE...18Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEW CU AROUND 7K FEET. S TO SE WINDS 8-12 KTS DEVELOPING...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS COVERAGE OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THU MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING DRIER LOW LEVELS. LEFT CLOUDS FEW-SCT EARLY THU MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY BR DEVELOP EAST OF I-35 AROUND SUNRISE THU...RESULTING IN 3-6SM VISIBILITIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/ AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS STRETCHING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS. THEY ARE NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY WEST BUT CANT RULE OUT DRT GETTING HIT WITH SOME CEILINGS IN AN HOUR OR TWO. LEFT DRT IN WITH JUST SCT FOR NOW. CEILINGS SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE PM. LOOK FOR LESS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BIT MORE MID CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT TODAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER TX. THE RIDGE CENTER IS OVER AR/ERN OK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE MAKING A WESTWARD SHIFT ACROSS OK INTO NW TX THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY- TO-DAY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...AS ANOTHER SPS IS WARRANTED TO MENTIONED HEAT INDICES UP TO 108 OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK AS AUS/SAT BOTH REACHED 99 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON TUESDAY. ONSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEAKEN FOR THURSDAY...AND THIS MAY BE THE CHANGE NEEDED TO REDUCE HUMIDITIES AND ALLOW AUS/SAT TO REACH THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 850 HPA SHOWN IN GFS/NAM MODEL TIME SECTIONS CORRELATE WITH AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IMPACT EASTERN COUNTIES INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AREA. GUSTY OUTFLOWS OVER THE DRY AIR BELOW COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG...AND WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A QUICK END TO RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND A MORE BROAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. POPS ARE TO REMAIN LOW AND CAPPED AT 30 PERCENT AS MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP AGAINST DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR MORE TO ENSURE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND SHORT STORM LIFE. ANOTHER MAINLY DIURNAL ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH THE EMPHASIS SHIFTING MORE TO WESTERN COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE STILL POINTS AT SOME OF THE HOTTEST AMBIENT TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DRY AIR PULLING SW FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. HOWEVER...THIS TREND IS SOFTENED UP FROM EARLIER RUNS AS MORE RECENT RUNS SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD BUY US AN EXTRA DAY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MORE HOT AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 101 78 99 76 / 0 0 20 30 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 100 75 99 75 / 0 - 20 30 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 76 99 76 / 0 0 20 30 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 77 98 75 / 0 0 20 30 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 102 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 20 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 77 99 76 / 0 - 20 30 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 100 75 98 75 / 0 0 10 30 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 76 99 75 / 0 0 20 30 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 76 98 76 / 0 10 20 30 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 78 99 78 / 0 0 10 30 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 77 99 77 / 0 0 10 30 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY