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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-07-02 11:40 UTC
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420 FXUS64 KEWX 021140 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 640 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 .AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/ LOW IFR TO MVFR STRATUS AS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BUT SO FAR AS ONLY IMPACTED KAUS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE ON THE FRINGE OF KSAT/KSSF. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING STRATUS COVERAGE AND IT MAY MOVE OUT OF KAUS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHERMORE...STRATUS DECK MAY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT KSAT/KSSF THROUGH 14Z BEFORE IT MIXES OUT COMPLETELY. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 1/2SM LOCALLY AT KBAZ TO 3-6 SM FOR POINTS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND NEAR LA GRANGE. VIS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH VFR PREVAILING. LESS SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THAT MAY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY WEATHER WORDING. KSAT/KSSF WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OUT OF ALL THE SITES FOR THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN. SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 KT AGAIN TONIGHT. MVFR AND IFR WILL RETURN MORE QUICKLY BY 06-08Z TO CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AS WELL GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/ UPDATE... PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER TEXAS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING UP FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH COVERED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL WIN OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...THE WILDCARD IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH TODAY...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWN THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH BACK THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS DRIER. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT AS DRIER IS THE NEW TREND...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SOME POPS FOR NOW. MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOLIDLY OVER TEXAS AND BEGIN A DRY FORECAST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 74 91 74 90 / 10 - 10 - 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 74 91 74 91 / 10 - 10 - 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 90 / 10 - 10 - 30 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 90 73 90 / - - 10 - 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 93 75 94 / 10 - 10 0 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 91 74 90 / - - 10 - 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 91 / 20 10 - - 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 91 74 90 / 10 - 10 - 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 75 92 75 90 / - - 10 - 30 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 91 75 90 / 10 10 - - 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 91 75 91 / 20 10 10 - 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05