National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-06-29 23:35 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KEWX Products for 29 Jun 2015 View All AFD Products for 29 Jun 2015 View As Image Download As Text
409 FXUS64 KEWX 292335 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 .EVENING UPDATE... SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPIN NORTHWARD WHICH MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES FROM 06Z- 12Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING OFF. WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK. WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY. THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES FURTHER. WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 92 73 92 74 / 20 30 10 20 - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 91 73 92 73 / 20 30 10 20 - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 91 73 91 72 / 20 30 10 20 - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 72 91 72 / 20 20 10 10 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 73 92 72 / 10 20 20 20 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 92 73 / 20 30 10 20 - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 72 91 71 / 20 30 10 30 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 73 92 73 / 20 30 10 20 - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 90 74 92 74 / 20 40 10 30 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 91 73 92 73 / 20 30 10 30 - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 73 92 73 / 20 30 10 30 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30