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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-05-30 20:08 UTC
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674 FXUS64 KEWX 302008 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES. MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVIING THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY ONCE STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE- EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 84 64 86 66 / 50 20 - 10 - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 83 61 85 64 / 50 20 - 10 - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 64 87 66 / 50 30 - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 81 62 84 65 / 40 20 - 10 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 87 69 89 70 / 40 30 - 20 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 62 84 65 / 40 20 - - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 65 87 66 / 50 30 - 10 - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 83 63 85 65 / 50 20 - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 84 63 85 67 / 60 40 - 20 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 85 66 86 68 / 50 30 - 10 - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 67 86 67 / 60 30 - 10 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO... GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR... KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS... UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33