National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-05-23 02:50 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KEWX Products for 23 May 2015 View All AFD Products for 23 May 2015 View As Image Download As Text
989 FXUS64 KEWX 230250 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 950 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .UPDATE... WEATHER FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OUT WEST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A MCS PUSHES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. HIRES MODELS ARE POINTING FOR THIS FEATURE TO COME IN BETWEEN DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND CANT RULE OUT SOME MINOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREA ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. THE STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES HIGHWAY 83. STILL LOOKING FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUNDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SAN ANTONIO AREA SO INCLUDED A QUICK TEMPO GROUP FOR SAT FOR PASSING CONVECTION. OTHER SITES WILL MAINLY BE ON THE FRINGES OF CONVECTION BUT CANT RULE OUT A PASSING SH/TS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUD COVER THINNING...BEING REPLACED BY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATED CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS START TO REFORM. MVFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AUS/SAT/SSF POSSIBLY HITTING IFR BY MORNING WITH SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN AND WHERE ACTUAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE ON SATURDAY...WENT WITH VICINITY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MORE WIDESPREAD SH/TS ACTIVITY. PLACE PREVAILING TS IN AUS/SAT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE FLOW ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FROM NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO LAREDO. WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA WERE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN COLORADO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN AND ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH PW GETTING UP TO A MAXIMUM OF 1.90 INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THEIR RAIN FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO SUNDAY MORNING. THE EASTERN PART WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SPOTS GETTING UP TO SIX INCHES. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAIN THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... HEAVY RAIN EVENT SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THIS PERIOD. MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY WILL BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STATED IN THE FIRST PERIOD SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FOR CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE RESULT. MONDAY A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA...BUT WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN...RUNOFF WILL BE QUICK SO ANY STRONG STORM COULD BE A LOCAL PROBLEM. MODELS ARE A LITTLE VARIABLE BEYOND TUESDAY...BUT ALL WANT TO BUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP OVER TEXAS TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH. SO...WHILE THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM...THERE MAY BE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 82 69 80 70 / 20 60 80 70 40 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 83 70 79 69 / 20 60 70 80 40 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 70 81 70 / 20 60 70 70 40 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 80 68 79 68 / 20 70 80 70 30 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 81 69 89 69 / 40 60 60 40 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 80 69 79 70 / 20 60 80 70 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 82 68 84 69 / 30 60 80 60 30 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 81 70 80 70 / 20 60 70 70 40 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 83 72 81 71 / 20 50 50 80 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 83 69 82 70 / 20 60 80 70 40 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 84 70 83 71 / 20 60 80 70 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR... BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS... FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES... KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK... MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON... ZAVALA. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30