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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-05-22 11:16 UTC
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534 FXUS64 KEWX 221116 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .UPDATE.../UPDATE TO ADD FOG/ PATCHY FOG HAS DROPPED A FEW VSBYS TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS FOR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HWY 90...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ AVIATION... LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT BEGINNING OUT WEST AND WILL MENTION THE ACTIVITY IN TAFDRT. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO SHIFT THIS EAST. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...GIVEN THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL BEND WILL BE IN A PWAT REGION OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO THERE COULD BE A FEW CELL CLUSTERS THAT PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL PRAIRIES. WHILE RUNOFF CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY...THE RAINS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOILS NEAR SATURATION AND ENHANCE CONCERNS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL DATA SHOW LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING ONE EXCEPTION THAT DEVELOPS AN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COMPLEX OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. LATE SATURDAY...MORE MODELS COME INTO ALIGNMENT ON RAMPING UP HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WITH THE EVENT ONLY JUST BEGINNING WILL DISCUSS THIS ENVIRONMENT IN FURTHER DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... AFTERNOON HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST DUE TO THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT VALUES KEEPING CLOUDS ABUNDANT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE COULD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRESENT A MINOR SEVERE CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING COMPLEX LATE IN THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE HIGHEST IMPACT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH RECENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOPING A SLIGHTLY BROADER UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF TX DURING THIS PERIOD...THE QPF FORECASTS AMONG THE RECENT SYNOPTIC MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE VARIED ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WILL HOLD OFF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AND GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER SHOT TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT BEFORE ADDING BETTER DETAILS ON THE EVENT TIMING. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THIS HIGHER IMPACT PERIOD FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...AND WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS SWEEPING ACROSS TX WOULD LIKELY HELP PROVIDE SOME RELATIVE STABILITY FOR LATE SUNDAY...BUT THE QPF PATTERNS IN THE MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT SUGGEST SUCH A COMPLEX. SHOULD THERE BE SMALLER...PROGRESSIVE STORM CLUSTERS AS SUGGESTED...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD QUICKLY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN ADDITION TO THE TRAINING AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS. CAPES ARE SUGGESTED TO APPROACH 4000 J/KG BY THE GFS SUNDAY WHICH WOULD COMBINE WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR FOR AN HP SUPERCELL THREAT. THE LIFTING OF THE FIRST LOBE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE SUNDAY WOULD SUGGEST RELATIVE MINIMA FOR RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SECONDARY LOBE TO MOVE INTO NW TX AND INCREASE STORM POTENTIAL FOR LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT TO OFFER SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A GENERAL CYCLICAL TROUGHING PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE SWRN US THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 71 82 70 79 / 40 30 50 70 80 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 70 82 70 79 / 40 30 50 70 80 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 80 71 82 70 80 / 50 30 50 70 80 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 69 80 68 78 / 40 30 60 70 80 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 71 82 69 89 / 40 30 60 60 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 70 81 69 78 / 40 30 50 70 80 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 71 81 69 83 / 50 30 50 80 70 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 71 81 70 79 / 40 30 50 70 80 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 80 72 83 72 80 / 40 30 50 50 80 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 72 82 69 81 / 50 30 50 70 70 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 72 83 71 82 / 50 30 50 70 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS