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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-03-30 05:28 UTC
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321 FXUS64 KEWX 300528 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1228 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015 .AVIATION... CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THAT. LOW CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO DRT BY ABOUT 12Z. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR WILL COME LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. LOOK FOR A REPEAT MONDAY NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ UPDATE...AS A RESULT OF THE MORE BULLISH CLOUD FORECAST PER HRRR/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RAP OUTPUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...OVERALL SKY COVER WAS INCREASED NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WERE ALSO INTRODUCED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND MAY HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW AS WELL. /ALLEN/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THANK FOR A WARM AND SUNNY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS WILL PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE REACH OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND STICK AROUND FOR MONDAY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE WEAK FRONT TO OUR NORTH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WITH SOME MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN ANTONIO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON MONDAY THAN THEY WERE TODAY AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND APPROACH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAY 3. CAPE VALUES OF 1200 J/KG AND DECENT SHEAR SUPPORT THE THREAT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE 90S. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE FRONT AND THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 50S. TREADWAY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 62 79 62 78 / 20 20 20 40 40 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 61 78 61 78 / 20 20 20 40 40 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 80 61 79 / 20 20 20 50 30 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 79 61 78 / 20 20 20 30 30 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 65 81 61 86 / - 20 30 40 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 62 79 62 77 / 20 20 20 30 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 61 79 61 81 / 10 20 20 40 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 79 61 78 / 20 20 20 50 40 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 61 79 63 79 / 20 20 20 50 60 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 62 79 62 79 / 20 20 20 50 30 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 62 80 62 80 / 10 20 20 50 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24