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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-03-28 23:48 UTC
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862 FXUS64 KEWX 282348 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/ VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 84 62 79 62 / 0 0 10 20 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 83 61 78 60 / 0 0 10 20 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 52 82 61 79 61 / 0 0 10 20 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 82 60 76 60 / 0 0 - 20 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 88 62 81 64 / 0 0 0 10 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 57 82 61 77 62 / 0 0 10 20 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 85 60 82 62 / 0 0 - 10 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 82 60 79 61 / 0 0 10 20 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 58 82 62 79 62 / 0 0 10 20 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 82 61 80 62 / 0 0 10 20 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 84 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00