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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-03-27 11:39 UTC
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007 FXUS64 KEWX 271139 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 639 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .UPDATE... PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND GENERALLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH WINDS TRENDING MORE EASTERLY AT KDRT AFTER 02Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN'T RULE OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN'T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 52 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 47 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 50 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 49 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 52 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 48 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 47 82 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 49 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 50 80 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 52 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 50 82 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17