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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-03-01 17:48 UTC
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793 FXUS64 KEWX 011748 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1148 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 .UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW. && .AVIATION...CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 200-600 FEET AND VISIBILITY VARIED GENERALLY 2 TO 6 MILES WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS UNDER 1 MILE. -RA/-DZ ONGOING NEAR AUS WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ABOVE IFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS (DRT MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR). TONIGHT...PATCHY -DZ WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 03Z...WITH POTENTIALLY LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY RE-DEVELOPING AT AUS/SAT/SSF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/ UPDATE... AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800MB. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT ALL OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG...BUT MOST VISIBILITY IS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 2-7 DEGREES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE. A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME. WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 41 50 50 73 / 30 40 40 30 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 41 51 51 75 / 30 40 40 30 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 50 44 53 53 75 / 30 30 30 30 30 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 39 47 47 72 / 30 40 40 40 30 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 51 58 54 79 / 10 20 20 20 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 40 48 48 72 / 30 50 40 30 30 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 54 47 56 56 77 / 20 20 30 30 30 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 43 52 52 74 / 30 30 30 30 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 46 54 54 74 / 40 40 40 20 30 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 52 46 55 55 75 / 20 20 30 30 30 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 47 55 55 77 / 20 20 30 30 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30