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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-01-29 04:57 UTC
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977 FXUS64 KEWX 290457 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1057 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015 .AVIATION... NO CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND THIS WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMATION BY AROUND 09Z AND VIS WILL DROP TO IFR. CIGS MAY FORM AT LIFR HEIGHT EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY. DRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR CIGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/ UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO GOING FORECAST BUT DID EXPAND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG FARTHER WEST AND NORTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE SET TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. DISCUSSION...MANY SITES EITHER REACHED OR CAME WITHIN 1-2F DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO HELP MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INFILTRATE THE REGION TONIGHT AND WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HELP FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOP. FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT NW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE. AS FOG SLOWLY MIXES OUT IT COULD BE THICK ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUD CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY NOON. DUE TO EARLY CLOUDS AND A WEAK FRONT COMING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. /ALLEN/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS ARE HELPING TO DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A STOUT LOW PRESSURE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SEND A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASE WEST TO EAST STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUNRISE SATURDAY TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES SO SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN...BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH...WHILE AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 CAN EXPECT A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE UP TO 2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASH OUT...IT WILL FOR SURE BE A WET ONE. THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME ACROSS THE AREA AS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ARE STILL CATEGORIZED IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. LOOKING AT THE AMOUNT OF LIFT THAT WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN 850 MB LLJ PASSES OVER AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARM UP BY MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE LARGE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST FROM THE BAJA TOWARDS TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS TAKE IT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT THEN DIVERGE AS THE GFS TAKES THE LOW NORTHEAST RIGHT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BROWNSVILLE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A VERY WET ONE ADDING ABOUT ANOTHER INCH OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE RUNS OF BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY. TREADWAY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 74 45 59 46 / 0 - 10 10 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 48 73 45 58 44 / 0 - 10 10 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 49 74 46 59 46 / 0 - 10 10 30 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 51 71 41 55 42 / 0 - 10 10 30 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 75 51 59 48 / 0 - 10 20 50 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 72 43 57 44 / 0 - 10 10 30 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 75 47 60 47 / 0 - 10 10 50 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 50 74 45 58 45 / 0 - 10 10 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 73 47 59 47 / 0 - 10 10 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 50 74 47 59 47 / 0 - 10 10 30 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 74 48 60 47 / 0 - 10 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...FOGARTY SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...VAN PELT