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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2015-01-27 11:19 UTC
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007 FXUS64 KEWX 271119 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 519 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 .AVIATION... ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE LATE JANUARY AVERAGES WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR 80. WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RISE. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH ALONG COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA...NEARLY PHASE INTO ONE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD ADVECTION WAITS UNTIL THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 132 WEST LONGITUDE OUT IN THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. WEAK OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY DUE TO LACK OF CONSENSUS AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING BRIEFLY BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM NOW TAKING IT NORTH OF OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN OUR AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE ENTIRE TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF MOST OF THE TROUGH INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A SMALL PART MOVING ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...THEN THE ECMWF MOVES AN OPENED TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS MOVING THE LOW ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE FRONT IN OR NEAR OUR AREA...DECREASING SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKE HOLD. THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWS IN THE 1.2 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE ARE FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS AND LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WARMER FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALREADY FORECAST DUE TO DIFFICULTY DISLODGING THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AS WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/LOW. CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE TO THE FORECAST AS SOUNDING NETWORKS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO CAPTURE THE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES IN THE COMING DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 48 80 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 43 78 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 45 80 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 45 79 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 46 79 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 45 79 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 42 81 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 44 79 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 46 77 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 47 79 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 46 79 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04