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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-12-20 05:50 UTC
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000 FXUS64 KEWX 200550 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1150 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014 .AVIATION.../UPDATE FOR 06Z TAFS/ MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35 ARE APPROACHING IFR LEVELS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER ALREADY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. STEADY NRLY WINDS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL DEPICTIONS...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DELAY LOWER VSBYS AND LOWEST CIGS OF THE MORNING. STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF 2SM VSBYS OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY NEAR I-35 LOCALLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SMALLER TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS DEVELOP. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS AT DRT TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT TRENDS COULD BE MORE ERRATIC DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LESS UNIFORM WINDS. ZONAL MID-LEVEL WINDS AND RETURNING SOUTHERLIES ALOFT OVER THE SETTLING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REINFORCE THE CLOUD DECK AND KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...SO WILL KEEP MOST TAF PERIODS IN THE LOWER MVFR CATEGORIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER APPROACH TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS TOWARD 06Z SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/ UPDATE...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS EXPANDED SOUTH THIS EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 281. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES MADE TO SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT 11-3.9U SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM THE WRF ABI SYNTHETIC 10.35-3.9U IMAGERY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY T GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING TOMORROW. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY. IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE WATER AT THIS POINT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 46 56 43 60 48 / - - - - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 56 41 59 46 / - - - 10 - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 46 56 44 61 48 / - - - 10 - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 42 54 39 58 46 / - - - - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 60 45 63 46 / - - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 54 39 58 47 / - - - - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 41 59 44 62 46 / - - - 10 - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 45 57 42 61 46 / - - - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 48 57 44 61 48 / - - - 10 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 57 44 61 49 / - - - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 58 45 62 49 / - - - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76