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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-11-27 23:42 UTC
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502 FXUS64 KEWX 272342 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 542 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014 .AVIATION... VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 10Z AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES AND BRINGS IN MOIST GULF AIR. IFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KDRT AND LEAST LIKELY AT KAUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OR RISE TO VFR AFTER 17Z FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... RATHER BENIGN PATTERN HAS KEPT CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY DIFFERENCE OF RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. HI RES MODELS AS WELL AS 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE GULF THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WRF SIMULATED GOES-R DEPICTS STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD UP TO DEL RIO AND EVENTUALLY UP ON THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LOW LEVEL HOWEVER AND THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A WEEKEND OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SFC MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGHING MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN CWA. ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHC MENTION. BY MID DAY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE AND ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AGAIN...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY EAST WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER. THIS SHOULD MAKE TUESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT ONLY INTO THE MID 30S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP...PERHAPS SUSPICIOUSLY TOO RAPIDLY...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD WARM LOWS UP INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS PREVENTS MUCH DETAILS BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS PRODUCES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH DEVELOPS SUBSTANTIAL QPF. EURO IS ESSENTIALLY A POLAR OPPOSITE. SO TO PREVENT BEING THE BOY WHO CRIED RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THIS...HIGHLY DUBIOUS. TB3 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 43 70 53 78 62 / 0 0 - - 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 40 71 52 78 61 / 0 0 - - 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 43 72 52 78 62 / 0 0 - - 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 68 50 75 59 / 0 0 0 - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 70 45 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 41 68 52 77 59 / 0 0 0 - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 44 70 47 76 51 / 0 0 - - 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 42 71 52 77 61 / 0 0 - - 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 43 71 56 78 63 / 0 - - 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 45 71 52 76 64 / 0 0 - - 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 45 72 52 77 63 / 0 0 - - 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12