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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-11-25 23:53 UTC
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482 FXUS64 KEWX 252353 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 553 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014 .AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/ MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE SW WINDS COULD PICK UP TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT REINFORCEMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTH OVER AUS/SAT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM BELOW 12 KNOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT AND INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY AND AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHALLOW...ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 41 70 41 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 34 70 37 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 39 70 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 37 67 39 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 36 69 40 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 37 68 37 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 34 71 37 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 37 70 39 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 40 69 42 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 39 71 42 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 39 71 41 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12