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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-11-20 16:29 UTC
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305 FXUS64 KEWX 201629 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1029 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014 .UPDATE... LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST OF TODAY. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA FROM NAM12 AND GFS40 CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGE HAIL FOLLOWED BY DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES. KEEP CHECKING OUR FORECAST PERIODICALLY FOR NEW WEATHER UPDATES AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/ AVIATION... MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LATE ARRIVING BUT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SKIES. LOW MVFR WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 2KFT THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO IFR CATEGORIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY IS NON-ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE SHOWERS AND NOT THUNDERSTORMS. HAMPSHIRE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... TODAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISING SFC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFTING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOSTLY EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NONE OF THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HAZARDS. BY FRIDAY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. AGAIN THIS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. WHILE OVERALL THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO RUN...SOME DETAILS OF ITS PROGRESSION ARE WORTH NOTING. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE SET UP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A SHIFT TO A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND THUS AMPLIFIED POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND VERTICAL SHEARING DURING MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY BUT THINK THAT THE LARGE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SOMEWHAT QUICKLY TRANSITION EVERYTHING INTO A MCS. WHEN THAT TRANSITION OCCURS AND WHEN CI OCCURS IS THE BIG QUESTION AND IF THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SLUGGISH TO BECOME REALIZED WITH CLOUD COVER. TIMING AND THREATS...BEST GUESS NOW IS A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. THREATS WILL CONSIST OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE NICE AS DAY 7 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 70S. THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE MORE DEEP TROUGHING TO APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND SO MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER. TB3 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 61 73 63 73 / 20 30 40 40 80 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 59 73 62 73 / 20 30 40 40 80 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 60 73 63 74 / 20 20 40 40 80 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 58 71 61 70 / 20 20 30 40 80 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 55 70 62 75 / 0 - 10 30 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 59 72 61 70 / 20 30 40 40 80 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 58 72 62 72 / 20 10 20 30 60 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 60 73 62 73 / 20 30 40 40 80 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 62 74 63 74 / 30 50 50 40 80 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 61 73 65 73 / 20 20 30 30 70 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 61 75 64 74 / 20 20 30 30 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00