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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-10-21 14:22 UTC
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404 FXUS64 KEWX 211422 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 922 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF NM...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA'S IN MEX JUST WEST OF EAGLE PASS TO WEST OF DEL RIO WITH A FEW IN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE AREA AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE CWA TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/ AVIATION... MVFR CIG AT DRT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF. ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AT AUS AND EXPECT VIS TO DROP TO MVFR IN BR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THEN WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 61 84 61 81 / - - - 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 56 84 56 81 / - - - 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 58 86 60 84 / - - - 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 58 82 59 79 / - - - 10 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 64 81 65 81 / 30 20 10 20 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 58 83 59 80 / - - - 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 55 85 59 82 / - - - 10 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 57 85 58 82 / - - - 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 59 84 59 81 / - - - - 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 61 86 63 83 / - - - 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 60 86 62 83 / - - - 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...81/TE SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99