National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-10-20 17:29 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KEWX Products for 20 Oct 2014 View All AFD Products for 20 Oct 2014 View As Image Download As Text
065 FXUS64 KEWX 201729 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1229 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 .AVIATION... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE LEADING TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CIGS RISING AT DRT...ALL 4 OF THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO LESS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS THAT FORMS IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT CIGS REMAINING VFR AT THE I-35 TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING. DRT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS FORECAST AT DRT AROUND 08Z TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. TREADWAY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING. GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 83 61 84 / - - - - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 57 83 55 84 / - - - - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 60 86 57 86 / - - - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 82 58 82 / - - - - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 66 83 65 84 / 30 20 30 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 83 59 83 / - - - - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 58 85 53 86 / 10 10 10 10 - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 58 84 56 85 / - - - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 60 84 58 84 / - - - - 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 64 86 61 87 / 10 10 - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 62 86 58 87 / 10 10 10 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30