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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-10-20 01:36 UTC
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811 FXUS64 KEWX 200136 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .UPDATE... OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/ AVIATION... VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 83 63 85 60 / - - - - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 83 58 84 54 / - - - - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 62 84 62 85 58 / - - - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 81 60 82 57 / - - - - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 82 65 82 64 / 20 20 20 30 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 82 59 83 57 / - - - - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 84 61 86 58 / 10 10 - 10 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 61 84 61 85 57 / - - - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 84 62 85 58 / - - 10 - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 84 64 86 62 / - - - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 64 85 64 86 60 / - - - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32