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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-10-02 00:07 UTC
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106 FXUS64 KEWX 020007 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 707 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 .AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT SAT...SSF...AND DRT AROUND 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 22Z WITH PREVAILING TSRA/MVFR CONDITIONS AT AUS AND SAT BY 02Z FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE BACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OUT WEST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. AREA RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND OUT WEST A FEW STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN-SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER/DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE ON THURSDAY BEFORE BIG CHANGES COME AROUND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS ESTIMATED TO BE THURSDAY EVENING FROM ABOUT 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY (HILL COUNTRY AND LOCATIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 35). AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OVER AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 90 AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF A HARPER TO AUSTIN TO LEXINGTON LINE. THE MAIN HAZARD TREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS. CAN'T RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASES DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND BETTER INSTABILITY. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH UP TO TWO INCHES OVER SOME SPOTS. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... BY FRIDAY MORNING (7AM)...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AS A MODERATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER NORTH TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN MORNING CLOUDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 94 65 85 56 / 10 20 60 - 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 95 65 85 53 / 10 20 70 - 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 67 84 54 / 10 20 70 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 62 83 53 / 10 30 40 - 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 94 67 87 59 / - 10 10 - 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 63 83 54 / 10 20 50 - 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 65 86 53 / 10 20 50 - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 94 66 84 54 / 10 20 70 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 93 67 83 56 / 10 20 60 - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 69 85 55 / 10 20 70 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 96 69 86 56 / 10 20 70 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...CACERES