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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-10-01 09:20 UTC
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640 FXUS64 KEWX 010920 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 420 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WE WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO OPTED TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FARTHER WEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM...WE/LL MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THIS REGION. THE HI-RES MODEL ALSO SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT OF VAL VERDE COUNTY AS CHANCES REMAIN LOW. FOR TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING REMAINS STOUT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71 IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION... GIVEN MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MOST FAVORED FOR AREAS EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2". RAIN CHANCES DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND WE/LL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS... EXCEPT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 75 94 65 83 / - 20 20 50 - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 94 65 82 / - 20 20 50 - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 95 67 86 / - 20 20 50 - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 92 62 84 / - 20 30 40 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 94 67 86 / - 10 10 10 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 93 63 83 / - 20 20 50 - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 96 65 88 / - 20 20 50 - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 94 66 84 / - 20 20 50 - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 75 94 70 83 / 10 20 20 50 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 77 95 69 86 / - 20 20 50 - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 96 69 87 / - 20 20 50 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24