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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-09-29 17:21 UTC
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297 FXUS64 KEWX 291721 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AND KDRT AS MORE CU FORM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CU WILL SCATTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 KNOTS ACROSS KDRT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH NO IMPACTS TO OUR AREA AIRPORTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ UPDATE... HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE BACK OF 4-8KFT DECK OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF BEXAR COUNTY. FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR A HEALTHY CU FIELD LATER TODAY IN AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SUNNY. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO THE 20 POP OVER THE SE COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND WORK INLAND. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ UPDATE... PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 5K-8K RANGE ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WINDS TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY. SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. DRY...NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG...SO WE WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING FEATURE ALOFT OVER TX WILL PROMOTE MAX TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE FROM SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM WEEKEND RAINS IN THE LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS...MAINLY SE OF I-35. DAYTIME MIXING OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP DISPERSE MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE COASTAL BEND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SE COUNTIES THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES TRANSITION GRADUALLY TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE SWRN US CREATES A MORE UNIFORM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD INCREASE THAT CHANCE THAT DRY MID LEVEL AIR INCREASES DAYTIME STABILITY WEDNESDAY DESPITE INCREASING PWAT VALUES SPREADING FARTHER INLAND. THURSDAY BEGINS THE NEXT WEATHER CHANGE AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING ALOFT SHARPENS AND DRAGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE TROUGH IS SHARPENING WITH TIME...THE BASE OF IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER N CENTRAL TX LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SYNOPTIC FORCING AND RAIN CHANCES. LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE THEREFORE IN THE FORECAST AS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE MOS GUIDANCES THE PAST FEW RUNS. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL TIMING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. THUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD DRIER POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DAYTIME WINDS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DRY LONGWAVE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL US OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD FAVOR MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS FORECAST IS DELAYED SLIGHTLY OVER MODEL GUIDANCES. THIS TREND COULD ALSO DELAY THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID MORNING CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 92 71 91 74 / - - 10 - 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 91 69 91 72 / - - 10 - 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 93 70 92 73 / - 10 10 - 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 90 69 90 73 / - - 10 - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 89 71 91 74 / 0 - - - 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 91 70 91 73 / - - 10 - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 92 70 93 73 / - - - - 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 91 70 90 73 / - 10 10 - 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 91 73 92 75 / 10 20 10 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 92 73 92 75 / - - 10 - 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 72 92 75 / - - 10 - 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33