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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-09-23 17:37 UTC
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824 FXUS64 KEWX 231737 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .AVIATION... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE COMING DOWN ON NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE A GOOD HUMIDITY GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY TO JUST WEST OF SAT IS ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR IS DOMINATING THE AUS AREA WHERE SAT/SSF ARE RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES. HAVE ADDED SOME CU INTO THE FORECAST FOR SAT/SSF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DONE THE SAME OUT IN DRT AS THE MOISTURE PUSHES WEST ON EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE OUT WEST BY WED MORNING...POSSIBLE MVFR AT DRT EARLY TOMORROW. LEFT A SCT GROUP IN THERE FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN GETTING ANY WIDESPREAD MVFR. SAT/SSF/AUS SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF VFR ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT EAST AND NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SE OUT IN DRT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/ UPDATE... WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SPREAD THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VAL VERDE COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST HI- RES RUC ALONG WITH THE NMM AND ARW MODELS ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/ AVIATION... NO CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. MVFR CIGS AT KSSF AND POSSIBLY KSAT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E/NE 5-10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE E/SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT KDRT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE KDRT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... MOIST AIR CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS ISOLATED AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90 THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POOLED MOIST AIR WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING IS REACHED...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THESE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED...AS THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY...AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROJECTED TO BE OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALL GENERALLY POINT TOWARD MINIMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. THERE APPEAR TO BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR A COLD FRONT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND BEYOND THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST TO DISCUSS MORE THAN THIS BRIEF MENTION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 63 85 63 85 / - - - - 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 60 85 60 85 / - - - - 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 63 87 63 88 / - - - - 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 86 66 84 / 20 20 - - 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 65 90 64 90 / 10 10 - - 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 63 85 62 85 / - - - - 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 62 86 64 87 / - - - - 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 66 87 65 87 / - - - - 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 88 65 87 / - - - - 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12