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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-09-19 23:23 UTC
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153 FXUS64 KEWX 192323 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS APPEARED SOUND IN REASONING AND THEREFORE THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE WERE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE REMOVAL OF THE VCSH FOR THE DRT TAF. OVERALL... VFR CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW WILL DEGRADE TO IFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE AERODROME SITES AS LOW STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DEVELOP. VFR WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY ONLY TO DEGRADE TO MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... RAIN CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM LLANO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SAN MARCOS DOWN THROUGH AND CUERO. PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE CURRENTLY NEAR MIDLAND WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA...FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM POLO...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.5 INCHES. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT DEL RIO HAD A PW VALUE OF 1.98 INCHES. WHILE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE STAYING TO OUR NORTH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE REISSUED. THAT SAID LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE...AS WE SAW THIS MORNING...SO SOME AREAS COULD GET 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 3-4 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT OVERNIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INCREASING THEIR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THE TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF WEST TEXAS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL TEXAS COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE DRYING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW THE FRONT THAT WAS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND ONLY PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT ON MONDAY AND AID IN DRIER AIR MOVE IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE NORTH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. TREADWAY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 90 73 92 73 / 30 30 20 20 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 90 71 92 71 / 30 30 20 20 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 73 94 72 / 30 30 20 30 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 86 72 92 71 / 30 30 20 30 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 89 74 88 74 / 40 40 30 40 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 89 73 92 72 / 30 30 20 20 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 89 74 93 73 / 40 40 30 30 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 73 92 71 / 30 30 20 20 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 89 74 93 72 / 30 30 20 20 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 75 93 74 / 30 30 20 30 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 90 74 93 74 / 30 40 20 30 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI