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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-09-16 17:48 UTC
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310 FXUS64 KEWX 161748 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE COAST. EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO DRT. OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID- MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 88 74 87 71 / 20 40 30 50 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 89 72 87 69 / 20 40 30 50 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 89 73 88 71 / 20 40 30 50 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 72 87 71 / 20 40 30 50 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 88 74 89 75 / 20 40 20 20 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 87 73 86 71 / 20 40 30 50 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 91 73 91 72 / 20 40 20 40 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 73 87 71 / 20 40 30 50 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 87 73 86 72 / 30 50 30 50 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 90 76 89 74 / 20 40 30 50 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 75 91 74 / 30 40 30 50 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32