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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-09-16 04:46 UTC
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725 FXUS64 KEWX 160446 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 .AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/ AFTER A REVIEW OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS THE MVFR CIGS ARE LESS LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE THE 00Z TAF PROJECTIONS. UPDATES WERE ALREADY MADE TO SHOW A SLOWER ONSET OF MVFR CIGS. THE WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT ARE LIGHTER THAN PROJECTED WHICH MEANS A FEW AREAS COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A DIP IN VSBY BELOW 6 NM. A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO DEEP S TX SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON WINDS BY LATE MORNING...AND THE MVFR CIGS FROM SELY WINDS SHOULD BE MORE CONSISTENT ON HEIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH PWAT VALUES COULD ADD TO BUOYANCY AND MAKE CIG COVERAGE LESS CONSISTENT. LATER IN THE DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FILLING INTO THE AREA AT SEVERAL LEVELS FROM BOTH THE GULF AND THE PACIFIC DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/ UPDATE... OVERALL...SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS. LATEST NAM12...SREF AND RUC13 SOLUTIONS SHOW AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF COMAL...HAYS AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. THEREFORE...INCREASED POP ACROSS THAT AREA TO A 20%. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL AIRMASS ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AT LOWER LEVELS AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/ AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER 2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED STORMS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW- LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4 OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND... AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS. HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 90 74 91 74 / 20 30 30 30 50 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 90 72 90 71 / 20 30 30 30 50 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 73 92 72 / 20 30 30 30 40 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 88 72 90 72 / 10 30 30 40 50 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 88 75 89 75 / 10 20 30 30 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 74 89 73 / 10 30 30 30 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 73 91 72 / 10 30 30 40 30 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 73 90 73 / 20 30 30 30 40 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 90 74 90 73 / 10 40 30 30 40 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 91 76 91 75 / 10 30 30 30 40 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 91 75 92 75 / 10 30 30 30 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17