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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDUNR Received: 2014-09-02 05:28 UTC
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225 FXUS63 KUNR 020528 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1128 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014 WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...WEAK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT SCNTRL SD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ERN MT/ERN WY. SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA DUE TO SHORT WAVE. TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING BRINGING SHRA/TSRA TO AN END...AND CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING. TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED/THU. MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST FORCING AND BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH FAR NWRN SD COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CLIP THE AREA WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS WED/THU WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WED WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THU. BEYOND THU THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN MODELS AS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IN THE MEAN THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SCNTRL-SERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT- WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CWA...ALBEIT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIODS WITH THE MOST CONSISTENT TIMING OF WAVES. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014 SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...BUNKERS AVIATION...JC