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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-08-28 11:45 UTC
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525 FXUS64 KEWX 281145 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 645 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA SITES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE SURFACE LOW SITS FEW MILES EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED AN EASTERLY WAVE AT 500MB MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COAST WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A TROUGH EXTENDED DOWN THE ROCKIES FROM WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLACK AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT. DEW POINTS WERE DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL COMBINE TO SPLIT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OF BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES LOOK BETTER FRIDAY THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE FORECAST TO SUGGEST STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE PW IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE SLIGHT TROUGHINESS OVER TEXAS WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY RETREATING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY LABOR DAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ONE IS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 76 96 76 96 / 20 20 30 20 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 74 96 73 95 / 20 20 40 20 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 97 74 96 / 20 20 30 20 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 94 74 94 / 20 10 30 20 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 78 97 77 99 / 10 10 20 20 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 76 94 75 94 / 20 20 40 20 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 73 95 73 96 / 20 10 30 20 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 96 75 95 / 20 20 30 20 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 96 76 95 76 93 / 40 20 50 20 40 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 77 96 77 96 / 20 20 30 20 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 96 76 97 / 20 20 30 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05