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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-08-23 11:15 UTC
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817 FXUS64 KEWX 231115 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 615 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .AVIATION... AREAS OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS E OF KCOT TO KUVA TO KAQO LINE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING LEAVING VFR SKIES WITH FEW VFR LEVEL CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LATE MORNING THRU EVENING. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY E OF KCOT TO KUVA TO KAQO LINE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE MORNING THRU EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS THE HEAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 100. THAT IS NOT THE CASE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105 ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLORESVILLE TO GONZALES TO LA GRANGE. HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA. THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ENJOYING THE LAST WEEKEND BEFORE SCHOOL STARTS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HAVING PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LESS OF A GRIP ON OUR TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THEY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER COMES MID WEEK. FIRST MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHEAR AXIS MOVING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THESE TWO DAYS. MID RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND STALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS SUMMER. MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH/FRONT WILL COME FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BEST LIFT LOOK TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHING OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IT WILL DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TREADWAY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 77 99 76 100 / - - - - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 75 100 73 100 / - - - - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 100 74 100 / - - - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 97 75 98 / - - - - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 80 99 78 99 / - - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 98 77 98 76 98 / - - - - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 98 73 98 / - - - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 99 74 99 / - - - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 78 100 77 101 / 0 - - - 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 99 79 99 77 99 / - - - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 100 76 100 / - - - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12