National Weather Service Raw Text Product

288 
FXUS63 KFSD 011113
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO 
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID 
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS 
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN 
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE 
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE 
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN 
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK 
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT 
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE 
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE 
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH 
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF 
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S 
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE 
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH 
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE 
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST 
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS 
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME 
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH 
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR 
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH 
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES 
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE 
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART 
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN 
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY 
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A 
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND 
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO 
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SOME SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW
LYING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING BY AROUND 1230Z OR
13Z...INCLUDING THE KSUX AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ONLY VERY ISOLATED -SHRA OR -TSRA IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
LOW PROBABILTY...DID NOT MENTION AT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...