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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFSD Received: 2014-08-01 11:13 UTC
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288 FXUS63 KFSD 011113 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014 CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014 SOME SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW LYING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING BY AROUND 1230Z OR 13Z...INCLUDING THE KSUX AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ONLY VERY ISOLATED -SHRA OR -TSRA IS EXPECTED. WITH THE LOW PROBABILTY...DID NOT MENTION AT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...