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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-07-31 16:14 UTC
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445 FXUS64 KEWX 311614 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1114 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014 .UPDATE...SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED NEAR DALLAS...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ROUGHLY NEAR A WACO TO LLANO TO LANGTRY LINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST MODELS INITIATING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AROUND 20Z...AS IT REACHES A ROUGH LINE FROM GIDDINGS TO AUSTIN TO BOERNE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY/GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEING ENHANCED BY PEAK HEATING AND BACKING SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SEA-BREEZE. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/HWY 90 LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWATS FORECAST 2-2.25 INCHES POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LOADING AND A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS INCLUDED IN THE HWO. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/ AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND STALL ON FRIDAY. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR THE TAF SITES WITH BEST TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BETWEEN 31/21Z AND 01/03Z. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES AT OTHER TIMES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. SLY WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO NLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND REACH THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND NOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FROPA CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARD DURING PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. WEAK LIFT AROUND 850HPA IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 90. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO A LOWER CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN CWA DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND GREATER CLOUD COVER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE FURTHER...AND WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHIP AWAY AT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FAR SRN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FLARE UP ON SUNDAY GENERALLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BY MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS REMAINS PARKED IN THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH STABILITY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GOOD MOISTURE BELOW 700HPA...CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FEELING MORE LIKE MID-JUNE THAN EARLY AUGUST. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 94 73 92 71 92 / 30 20 20 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 70 92 68 91 / 40 20 20 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 72 94 70 93 / 50 30 30 20 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 90 69 90 / 20 20 10 10 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 78 95 77 95 / 20 20 30 30 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 71 90 70 90 / 20 20 10 10 - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 72 94 72 94 / 40 40 30 30 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 73 93 69 92 / 50 30 20 20 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 96 75 92 72 91 / 50 40 30 20 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 96 76 93 74 92 / 50 40 30 20 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 94 73 93 / 50 40 30 30 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00